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Release Date of the Next National Retail Bulletin: November 16, 2009
All Stores sales fell by -5.4% this month, bettering the 2009 year-to-date average of -8.8%. The Labor Day weekend, which came later in September this year, may have helped to maintain this trend.
Several categories, including those that fulfill the basic needs of consumers, saw single-digit growth in sales for September.
Unlike the previous month, Health and Personal Care Stores were not the only sector to see positive sales results in September; however, they did remain at the top of the list with a growth in sales of 3.3%.
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores were also up, increasing its September sales by 2.9%.
General Merchandise Stores were finally back in positive territory with a sales increase of 2.5%. A few retailers, like Costco, beat this average with its U.S. same-store-sales up 3.0% for the month, compared to the same time last year.
Department Stores (excluding leased departments) were stronger this month, with a sales dip of -1.9%, compared to a much bigger year-to-date average loss of -7.0%. Nordstrom saw a -2.4% decline in revenue for September while traditional retailers like JC Penney were flat with sales falling by -1.4%.
Compared with the GAFO categories (e.g., General Merchandise, Clothing, Furniture, etc.) whose sales growth started its sub-zero decline in September 2008, the food sector appears to experience relatively flat growth: Food and Beverage Stores saw retail sales grow by 1.2%; Grocery Stores also grew slightly by 0.8% in September.
Clothing and Accessories Stores also faced flat growth of 0.4%. Retailers providing value products however continued to see an increase in sales for September; TJX Companies grew its revenue by 7%.
Still in negative territory but trending upwards were the Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores; sales fell by -6.1% compared to the more than double year-to-date loss of -12.7%.
Electronics and Appliance Stores remained unchanged with sales still down by -9.9% this month.
Still struggling were the Building Material and Garden Equipment Stores, which saw sales fall by -13.4% this month.
Most retail growth has been trending upwards as consumer confidence waivers between 47 to 55 points for the last five months. While this month’s confidence fell by a mere two points (53), a new norm around 50 may be in the works. Shoppers are definitely remaining cautious in their optimism and spending habits as they continue to seek out value products.
Join us next month to see whether retailers will be wise to consumer caution, or whether the chilly fall winds will erode retail sales.
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For more information, please contact Jim Okamura at (312) 673-1254, John Archer (416)921-4181 or e-mail or info@jcwg.com; Website: www.jcwg.com
Please note:
The J.C. Williams Group National Retail Bulletin compares the latest monthly release of “raw” (i.e., unadjusted for seasonality, holiday, and trading day) retail sales figures to those in the same calendar month of the previous year. The U.S. Census Bureau also reports seasonally adjusted sales that are compared to the previous month within the current calendar year to measure change in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Although other sources use seasonally adjusted figures, J.C. Williams Group believes that using raw figures and making comparisons to the previous year’s performance more accurately reflects the seasonality of the retail industry, and therefore, are more useful in analysis. Definitions can be found on the U.S. Census Website: www.census.gov.
